“Peak oil” describes the point at which the production of petroleum reaches its final high-point and begins a terminal decline. Given that oil is a finite resource, everyone agrees that a peak is inevitable, but views differ about when it is likely to happen and what the impacts will be. Some experts argue that the peak is imminent and that, when markets finally wake up to this fact, the world will face severe economic consequences. Others – including many governments and energy companies – believe the peak to be decades away and argue that as oil becomes more expensive to extract, the market will naturally redirect investment towards alternative energy sources.
If those concerned about peak oil are proved correct, and a fall in oil production triggered a major economic down-swing, this would likely reduce the global rate of carbon emissions for a period, just as other recessions have done. But even a very severe global recession wouldn’t reduce emissions sufficiently to “solve” climate change – and indeed the longer-term impact of the oil peak could be to accelerate rather than decelerate global warming. That’s because falling availability of crude oil could boost the production of even more carbon-intensive alternatives such as oil extracted from tar sands or “synfuel” produced from coal.
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