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Media Type: Article - Foundational
Date of Publication: August 7
Year of Publication: 2020
Publication City: London, UK
Publisher: Springer Nature
Author(s): Piers M. Forster , Harriet I. Forster, Mat J. Evans et. al.
Journal: Nature Climate Change
Categories: Climate change
The global response to the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a sudden reduction of both GHG emissions and air pollutants.
Here, using national mobility data, we estimate global emission reductions for ten species during the period February to June 2020. We estimate that global NOx emissions declined by as much as 30% in April, contributing to a short-term cooling since the start of the year. This cooling trend is offset by a ~20% reduction in global SO2 emissions that weakens the aerosol cooling effect, causing short-term warming.
As a result, we estimate that the direct effect of the pandemic-driven response will be negligible, with cooling of around 0.01 ± 0.005 °C by 2030 compared to a baseline scenario that follows current national policies.
In contrast, with an economic recovery tilted towards green stimulus and reductions in fossil fuel investments, it is possible to avoid future warming of 0.3 °C by 2050.
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