Item Link: Access the Resource
Media Type: News / Op - Ed
Publication Info: Berggruen Institute
Date of Publication: September 10
Year of Publication: 2020
Publication City: Los Angeles, CA
Author(s): Jack A. Goldstone , Peter Turchin
We predicted political upheaval in America in the 2020s. This is why it’s here and what we can do to temper it.
Almost three decades ago, one of us, Jack Goldstone, published a simple model to determine a country’s vulnerability to political crisis. The model was based on how population changes shifted state, elite and popular behavior. Goldstone argued that, according to this Demographic-Structural Theory, in the 21st century, America was likely to get a populist, America-first leader who would sow a whirlwind of conflict.
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