Welcome To The ‘Turbulent Twenties’

| November 20, 2020 | Leave a Comment

Item Link: Access the Resource

Media Type: News / Op - Ed

Publication Info: Berggruen Institute

Date of Publication: September 10

Year of Publication: 2020

Publication City: Los Angeles, CA

Publisher: Noēma

Author(s): Jack A. Goldstone , Peter Turchin

Categories: , , , ,

We predicted political upheaval in America in the 2020s. This is why it’s here and what we can do to temper it.

Almost three decades ago, one of us, Jack Goldstone, published a simple model to determine a country’s vulnerability to political crisis. The model was based on how population changes shifted state, elite and popular behavior. Goldstone argued that, according to this Demographic-Structural Theory, in the 21st century, America was likely to get a populist, America-first leader who would sow a whirlwind of conflict.

Read the full article here.

 

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