[Jonathan Sobels]

Dear David
I led a team who reported on the long-term physical implications of different levels of migration into Australia out to 2050, for the Department of Immigration, in 2010 (www.immi.gov.au). Because migrants’ consumption very quickly equates to that of existing Australians, the study became a proxy for the effects of overall population growth on our physical natural and built environments.

Key conclusions from modelling the exchange of real ‘stuff’- rather than economic proxies, case studies of the impacts of major concentrations of migrant communities, and essays on the social costs of carbon as waste, were; 1. All population increases damage to or use up natural assets (water, biodiversity); 2. Western Sydney runs out of landfill around 2020; 3. Western Sydney will also pave over 52% of its market gardens in the north-west and south-west growth corridors in the next 15 years; 4. Perth and Sydney are both going to be short of water, especially Perth, with projected population growth in a warming, drying climate; and 5. The social cost of carbon equates to about 10% of a household’s income.

So, Australia might have a lot of space, but not a lot of the key requirements for human existence, especially water, which desalination plants cannot address if projected population growth occurs.

[Author]

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