Climate Change, The Earth Armistice and Comparative State Advantage in Military Spending

 The Military, Financial and Ecological Benefits of the UNSC adopting an Earth Armistice that applies equally to all States.

As argued earlier in several MAHB articles on the Earth Armistice, the UN Security Council (UNSC) can adopt, consistent with Articles 25 and 26 of the UN Charter, a resolution that is legally binding on all member-states to devote from 10-20 percent of their annual or projected defense budgets to the critical security issue of restraining and then reversing climate change (Citations listed in earlier articles). Such a resolution is also fully consistent with Article 34 in Chapter Six of the Charter that permits the Security Council to “investigate any dispute, or any situation which might lead to international friction or give rise to a dispute, in order to determine whether the continuance of the dispute or situation is likely to endanger the maintenance of international peace and security.” Numerous scientific studies have indicated the rising correlation, and even causation, between increasing ravages of climate change and violent human conflict. This essay will expand upon the earlier articles and point out the comparative state advantage that each state, especially the permanent members of the UNSC, will gain by adopting an Earth Armistice for the duration of the climate crisis.

INTRODUCTION: GLOBAL MILITARY EXPENDITURES

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), “total world military expenditure rose to $1739 billion in 2017, a marginal increase of 1.1 per cent in real terms from 2016.” [1] In view of this massive expenditure for war, or preparations for war, states can redirect a certain percentage—to be negotiated in the UNSC—to effectively addressing climate change. Such a critical mission should be seen as essential  to the self-defense of the nation against the massive and growing menace of climate change, as well as to the “common security” of each state and all peoples.[2]  Make no mistake about it—climate change if continued unabated and unchecked, threatens the deep security of each state and is a possible extinction event for much or all of humanity.[3]

 As climate change accelerates and devastates greater areas of the Earth, as witnessed by worsening, wildfires, droughts, flooding, extreme weather events, interstate conflict and  species extinction events,[4]  the time is ripe for the UNSC to pass the appropriate resolution calling for an “Earth Armistice.”  This would devote 10 to 20 percent of each member states’ defense budget to address climate change effectively. If the larger percentage of 20% becomes mandatory, due to UNSC action, then this will release almost 350 billion dollars immediately for efforts to address and reverse climate change.  If this amount proves insufficient to the task, then the UNSG can adjust the percentage to ensure effective action is finally achieved.

THE GREEN-GROWTH ECONOMY: THE EARTH ARMISTICE AND ENVIRONMENTAL EXPENDITURES

Once an Earth Armistice is adopted by the UNSC, its member-states, with the help and expertise of the UNSC’s Military Staff Committee, can begin to allocate significant funds to research, develop and deploy (RD2) the Net Emission Technologies (NETS) recently advocated by the IPCC as being necessary to stop and then roll back the accumulation of CO2 in the global atmosphere.  With the appropriate funds, each regional organization throughout the globe, ASEAN, the AU, BRIC, the Commonwealth of Nations, the EU, the Nordic Council, the OAS, etc. can adopt two or three of the most promising NETS and quickly develop the truly massive technologies needed to accomplish this urgent task. At the same time, the stringent carbon cuts agreed upon at Paris and through other UN affiliated organizations, such as the UNFCCC and the COP process, must be strictly observed and, if possible, accelerated since no one method or approach will secure our future from the coming catastrophic climate change descending upon us. It should be emphasized that such steps funded by the UNSC Earth Armistice will create an enormous research, development and deployment (RD2) effort and accelerated market for a global green economy that is necessary to move beyond the Carbon Age and into a carbon-free and thus sustainable future.

COMPARATIVE STATE ADVANTAGE: A STATE V. ITS POSSIBLE AND COMBINED ADVERSARIES.

The Earth Armistice also provides “comparative state advantage” in military spending for all the permanent members of the UN Security Council (UNSC). This is especially true when each member considers the combined spending by all other members-states of a potential military coalition against it; for instance, all other states that are permanent members of the Security Council–France, the United Kingdom, Russian and China—except for the United States- would face a potential coalition of states that can currently outspend it.  As a US ally and member of NATO, the UK faces Russian and potentially China. Both of these latter countries would cut far more than the UK alone in an Earth Armistice.  The same is true for France. Russia or China could potentially face, not only the United States but all of NATO and even some ASEAN countries, plus South Korea and Japan.  The resulting cuts by these potential adversaries would be far greater than any cut by Russian or China in its defense budget, resulting in a very significant comparative state advantage in military cuts required by an Earth Armistice.

 The point is that each permanent member of the UNSC—with the exception of the US, which we will address shortly—would cut potentially far less of its annual military budget than its potential adversaries.   This comparative advantage is also economically true for the largest defense spender–the United States– since it has to borrow money yearly to fund its massive defense establishment and federal budget; the deepening financial debt of the United States, as well as the world’s other great powers, now threaten entire national economies and –left unaddressed– these states’ viability in domestic and international affairs.  Specifically, the United States is without doubt the greatest spender on defense related expenditures in the world; its projected discretionary defense budget for FY 2020 is 718 billion dollars. With the Department of Veteran Affairs (underfunded at $220.2billion) and Department of Energy ($31 billion includes maintenance of the military’s nuclear stockpile) budgets added, the US is contributing almost a trillion dollars a year to its defense budget.   Ironically, this is about the same amount the United States Treasury has to BORROW to pay for the US government’s annual budget, adding every year to a multi-trillion dollar federal deficit. In a recent article (2019) by Rear Admiral Barnett, entitled: “The Catastrophic Threat to National Security:  The Exploding Debt,” he argues that: “Until our political leaders move the national debt to a central focus, view it as a threat to national security, and work for immediate…non-partisan solutions, the U.S. is at [catastrophic] risk.” . As Admiral Barnett points out, the U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen made very similar comments ten years earlier, but has been so far ignored as the threat to national security poised by the national debt dangerously grows.  So, for the United States, the comparative state advantage of spending significantly less via an Earth Armistice is that such a step can significantly lower the increasing danger posed by its growing national debt. 

In particular, many of the permanent powers on the UN Security Council are planning nuclear weapons modernization programs in the next ten years, and committing over a trillion dollars to these efforts.[5]  As part of the Earth Armistice, all development, testing or deployment of new or “modernized” nuclear weapons, as well as their delivery systems should cease immediately for the duration of the Armistice.  The Earth certainly doesn’t need one more nuclear weapon in the world[6]

Finally, such  an Earth Armistice is also essential to ensure sustainable development for all developing states and that the goals of the 2030 Agenda Action Plan are met as well;[7] in fact, the funds set aside will help create hundreds of thousands of  jobs around the world in developing and developed countries; deploying green technologies, helping economies transition to carbon free economies, developing and deploying large scale negative emissions technologies and reforesting the six inhabited continents of the world will help create a truly sustainable green and global economy. These funds must be specifically shared with and directed towards developing and island states as well if international efforts to overcome climate change are to finally succeed.

SECURITY COUNCIL ACTION: WHEN THE STARS ALIGN

As the English Bard William Shakespeare notes, “It is not in the stars that holds our destiny, but in ourselves.” So, the Earth Armistice will pass only when member states of the UNSC realize that that climate change is simultaneously: a) an immediate, deadly and thus increasingly important threat to the maintenance of international peace and security; b) the UNSC is uniquely suited by the UN Charter to address this great and growing threat; c) the combined military budgets are the only available funds big enough to address and overcome climate change on a GLOBAL SCALE. Only when this is done will the growing threat to international peace be successfully addressed, abated and even overcome. As we have argued, the UN Charter gives the UNSC ample power and authority to take such actions that are legally binding on all member states of the United Nations.

This obviously won’t occur in the current political climate; but the political, economic, social and hence military status quo is simply unsustainable as the magnitude and effects of catastrophic climate change descend upon us. The rising temperatures across the globe, portending more droughts and severe weather events, melting of the permafrost in western Siberia the size of Australia or the wildfires and droughts in the western states of the US are only the beginning. So, individuals, organizations and convinced member states must begin to lobby the UNSC immediately in the hopes that governments, especially those of the permanent powers are convinced to act as soon as possible; the IPCC estimates that we have from 7-12 years before decisive “tipping points” are reached that makes catastrophic climate change inevitable. Given this, and the time it will take to RD2 (research, develop and deploy) the needed NETS, we may have two to five years to make a decisive action; so, the UNSC will need to be seized upon and ideally approve the Earth Armistice by the early 2020s AD, or much—if not all—will be lost.

CONCLUSION: NOW OR NEVER  

“Without Vision, a People Perish”  – The Psalms

Climate Change fueled by human induced greenhouse gases (GHGs) is a growing threat to international peace and security.  In view of this, the immediate goal of the Earth Atmosphere—still humanly possible—would be to reduce CO2 gases in the global atmosphere to below 400 ppm to reduce this threat as much as possible. We will need to every possible mitigation strategy, policy and method including negative emissions technologies (NETS) to accomplish this. [8] The ultimate goal must be to reduce CO2 to 350 ppm, the figure that leading atmospheric scientists state is the necessary level in order for life to survive and flourish in the future. [9].  To the raise the vast funds necessary to accomplish this, the United Nations Security Council can adopt the Earth Armistice for the duration of the climate crisis as perhaps the most promising and immediate way to effectively stop and reverse global climate change before it is simply too late. There is no Planet B…… As such, we implore the UNSC to rise to this historic opportunity and adopt the Earth Armistice to help save all of its present and pending life on this planet– our only and true Mother Earth.