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Publication Info: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-63657-6
Date of Publication: May 6
Year of Publication: 2020
Publication City: London, UK
Publisher: Nature.com - Scientific Reports
Author(s): Mauro Bologna, Gerardo Aquino
Volume: 10
Pages: 7631
In this paper we afford a quantitative analysis of the sustainability of current world population growth in relation to the parallel deforestation process adopting a statistical point of view. We consider a simplified model based on a stochastic growth process driven by a continuous time random walk, which depicts the technological evolution of human kind, in conjunction with a deterministic generalised logistic model for humans-forest interaction and we evaluate the probability of avoiding the selfdestruction of our civilisation. Based on the current resource consumption rates and best estimate of technological rate growth our study shows that we have very low probability, less than 10% in most optimistic estimate, to survive without facing a catastrophic collapse.
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